Commentary: They are different yet so much alike.
When comparing the politics of New Hampshire to South Carolina in this presidential election year, timing and tendencies make for a compelling scenario. I can make that comparison from first-hand observation, having worked on the ground either covering or shaping outcomes in both states.
While the Granite State’s primary is now a century old, the Palmetto State’s is just reaching middle age. But they’re equally impactful: the first as the major credibility-builder for national candidates, the second for its “First in the South” status. Winners and close runners-up from New Hampshire and South Carolina will be that much harder to beat on Super Tuesday.
Let’s peel back the onion to gain some insight.
New Hampshire’s credo of “Live Free or Die” reflects a strong will for independent living and thinking. It’s the same sentiment that brought its late conservative, and sometimes irascible, governor, Mel Thompson, to power in the 1970’s.
South Carolina’s motto “Dum Spiro Spero,” Latin for “While I breathe I hope,” set the context for the rise of the Dixiecrats in 1948 and the late Senator Strom Thurmond, portending the day when Ronald Reagan would make the South solid for the GOP in 1980.
Both states provided stunning rises for memorable candidates
Minnesota Senator Eugene McCarthy leveraged the surprising withdrawal of President Lyndon Johnson from the 1968 campaign after McCarthy’s amazing second-place finish in New Hampshire with 42% of the vote.
Massachusetts Senator John Kennedy barely defeated Richard Nixon for the White House, in part, because South Carolina voted for Kennedy, the only Southern state to do so in 1960.
McCarthy’s New Hampshire showing marked the first time a candidate had won New Hampshire but not the party’s nomination.
Kennedy’s narrow win marked the last time South Carolina voted for a Democrat in the general election. That’s right, the late Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater, often seen as the ‘progenitor’ of the Reagan Revolution, actually won South Carolina in the 1964 election against incumbent LBJ. It was only one of six states that Goldwater carried.
Post World War II, New Hampshire elected far more Republicans to the Governor’s office although since 1997, Democrats have held sway, with the exception of two years. Plus, three of the last four New Hampshire electoral colleges have gone to Democrats.
Former U.S. Secretary of Education, Dick Riley, was only one of two Democrats to serve as South Carolina Governor in the past six administrations, so that for the past 35 years, Republicans have held a lock on that top slot, including incumbent Nikki Haley, considered by some in the GOP as potential vice presidential or cabinet-level material.
So while New Hampshire today offers a mix of progressive and conservative voters, South Carolina by far remains a “Red” state, although one offset seen today, is that African-American voters comprise more than half of South Carolina’s Democratic voters.
Is this last point why Hillary Clinton has a 30-point lead over Bernie Sanders in South Carolina as of early February? It appears traditional party alignment will prevail over the anti-establishment candidate next week. Progressive blocks are hard to find in South Carolina, as Sanders is likely seeing. It’s the total reverse of New Hampshire for Clinton.
Can Donald Trump continue to resonate with South Carolina’s conservative view and build on his 16-point lead over Ted Cruz, despite the power of the fundamental Christian voting bloc in South Carolina’s 6th Congressional District and across the Piedmont Region?
Still, South Carolinians occasionally tend toward the progressive. Governor Haley is the first woman and Indian American to hold that office in the Palmetto State, for example.
The stage is set for some historical perspective
Then-South Carolina Governor Olin B. Johnston threw his support to JFK in 1960, and helped tip the scales in what turned out to be one of the closest outcomes in presidential election history. Of course, Johnston was a Democrat but his endorsement of a young Catholic from Boston was risky for a Southern Governor of this era. It paid off with Johnston’s eventual election to the U.S. Senate.
Haley is expected to endorse either Rubio or Trump following New Hampshire, but how would her many critics feel about this trailblazer breaking ranks in November, perhaps setting the stage again for another unexpected outcome?
Richard Kadzis is a former New England-based correspondent for National Public Radio’s “All Things Considered.” He covered politics and the courts. He also served as press secretary to U.S. Rep. Liz Patterson, the first woman ever elected to the U.S. Congress from South Carolina. Patterson is the daughter of the late Olin B. Johnston, and she served three terms representing South Carolina’s 6th Congressional District, starting with her election in Ronald Reagan’s second mid-term election in 1986. Kadzis is today a resident of Las Cruces.