Commentary: Any journalist who’s covered a crowded presidential primary field knows it’s a wild ride. Just read the book “The Boys on the Bus,” and you’ll get an authentic, inside account.
Take the 1976 election year as an example, then, fast forward to 2016. Four decades separate these elections. Yet they reveal similar, early patterns.
Then, with Gerald Ford as the incumbent who succeeded Richard Nixon in the aftermath of Watergate, only Ronald Reagan challenged for the GOP nomination.
But with the national mindset’s cynicism toward the Washington establishment, a large field of Democrats threw their hats into the ring:
- Jimmy Carter, former governor of Georgia
- Morris Udall, U.S. representative from Arizona
- Jerry Brown, governor of California
- George Wallace, governor of Alabama
- Frank Church, U.S. senator from Idaho
- Henry M. Jackson, U.S. senator from Washington
- Fred R. Harris, former U.S. senator from Oklahoma
- Robert Byrd, U.S. senator from West Virginia
- Milton Shapp, governor of Pennsylvania
- Sargent Shriver, former U.S. ambassador to France, from Maryland
- Birch Bayh, U.S. senator from Indiana
- Lloyd Bentsen, U.S. senator from Texas
- Terry Sanford, former governor of North Carolina
We all know that one of the Washington ‘outsiders,’ Governor Carter, ultimately won the presidency in that bicentennial year. Starting with the New Hampshire primary (the Iowa caucuses had yet to be introduced), it was a mad scramble that I covered first-hand for my college radio station and senior-year thesis.
Today, we’re viewing a mirror image of 1976.
With a Democratic incumbent leaving the White House, there are two viable candidates chasing the nomination: Secretary Hillary Clinton and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.
This time, the mad scramble is on the Republican side, where the size of the GOP field rivals that of the Democrats in 1976:
· Jeb Bush, former Governor of Florida
· Dr. Ben Carson, MD
· New Jersey Governor Chris Christy
· Texas Senator Ted Cruz
· Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina
· Former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore
· Former Arkansas Governor Mike Hukabee
· Ohio Governor John Kasich
· Kentucky Senator Rand Paul
· Florida Senator Marco Rubio
· Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum
· Real Estate Magnate Donald Trump
There are third-party candidates ranging from Libertarian to Green parties, not to overlook a bunch of candidates who have already withdrawn from all sides of the race.
So, in a sense, what’s old is new again.
Today, we have two parties – at this exact time on the front edge of primary season – with multiple candidates who are nomination-eligible.
We can argue, even with national polls saying otherwise, no one is a clear leader in the “long run” sense, because there’s a lot of time left on this election game clock: 5 – 6 months before the conventions, and 10 months before the general election.
Much can and probably will happen in the balance; such as, for the first time ever in American presidential politics: A brokered convention by both parties, simultaneously/concurrently.
Let’s cut it to the quick: Joe Biden vs. Michael Bloomberg.
Crazy conjecture? Outrageous outcome? Maybe so, but considering the moment we are, this is only one iteration of many combinations.
For the Democrats, President Obama’s recent endorsement of Hillary Clinton has a palpable nuance: “No one more qualified than a non-vice president to be elected.” Like Richard Nixon with Eisenhower, Joe Biden has earned the nomination for a loyal eight-year service as Obama’s Vice President. But Biden doesn’t want a cat fight with Clinton, and can easily avoid the grind and scrutiny of multiple primaries when called upon at the Democratic Convention this summer.
Sanders faces a tough sell to the general electorate on his ideas for reform. Where’s the money going to come from? While dynamic and experienced, he could well end up, like Eugene McCarthy or John Anderson, staging a credible third-party general election bid. Like Nader did to Gore, Sanders could chip away at whomever is the Democratic choice.
And what will become of Trump, Cruz, Rubio or any of the viable GOP contenders? I see a stalemate developing at the GOP Convention, and former New York Mayor Bloomberg stepping up to break the impasse. Highly regarded, richer than Trump, also wanting to avoid the primary mud-slinging season, Bloomberg is ideally positioned as a serious Republican dark horse.
Here again, a viable third-party bid is possible: Trump.
Then there is the growing legal case against Clinton, her baggage already considerable. But being indicted for a federal crime tied to her use of a personal email server as Secretary of State: this will prove insurmountable.
As Alex Plitsas, a national security professional specializing in counterterrorism, observed this week, “Unfortunately for Hillary, the evidence against her is both obvious and mounting, and the two men leading the investigation, FBI Director Comey and Intelligence Community Inspector General McCullough, are known for the independence and integrity.”
Almost 1,300 emails that Clinton had on her personal server were determined to contain classified information. “There are several major problems that she faces as a result,” according to Plitsas, including a likely federal indictment.
So many candidates, so many variations, there’s one certainty: the mood of the electorate, which today is very much as it was in 1976. Trump, who has resurrected Archie Bunker, has so far been the most effective at tapping this sentiment: “We’re sick and tired, and we won’t take it anymore.”
Forty years ago, voters reacted to Watergate by electing Jimmy Carter. Today, thanks to polarization, petty bickering and legislative gridlock on Capitol Hill, one thing seems certain: We will see another Washington outsider in the White House in hopes that the public interest and the general good will supplant selfish ideologues whose main interest is getting re-elected.
About the Author
As a former New England correspondent for NPR’s All Things Considered and as the former Massachusetts State House reporter for NPR member station WBUR-FM in Boston, Kadzis covered the late Senator Ted Kennedy and his failed campaign to wrest the presidency from Jimmy Carter, as well as other key politicians at the time including Governor Michael Dukakis, then-State Representatives Barney Frank and Andrew Card, and the Federal District Court.