ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. (AP) — Republican plans to overhaul former President Barack Obama's Affordable Care Act were derailed indefinitely Friday, but not before state insurance regulators warned of a "major potential impact" for New Mexico if some of the GOP bill's provisions are kept alive.
In an analysis, the state insurance superintendent estimated more than 45,000 adults who benefited from expanded Medicaid eligibility could be dropped from the program under the GOP proposal. Overall, New Mexico could see 153,000 people drop from coverage for all Medicaid programs over the next decade.
The analysis also shows the rolls of those with individual coverage plans would shrink by more than 22,000 by 2020 if the federal government eliminates fines on those who do not obtain coverage and subsidies for those who purchase insurance.
The Office of the Superintendent of Insurance released its report before President Donald Trump and GOP leaders pulled their repeal bill off the House floor minutes before a vote was to occur Friday.
Despite the last-minute maneuvering, there has been much discussion about trimming future federal financing for Medicaid and shifting the burden to states.
Advocates who had been worried about the potential ramifications for some of New Mexico's most vulnerable populations were somewhat relieved Friday, but there was also uncertainty about what direction Trump and his congressional supporters would go.
Sireesha Manne, an attorney with the New Mexico Center on Law and Poverty, reviewed the analysis by state insurance officials.
"What it's showing is there's no scenario where this works for New Mexico if Medicaid gets cut and tax credits are reduced for people who are buying insurance," she said. "The bill just can't be fixed with amendments when we're suffering such a huge loss of health care coverage."
Medicaid expansion in New Mexico — approved in 2013 by Republican Gov. Susana Martinez — has been a major driver for bringing more low-income New Mexico residents onto the rolls and slashing the rate of those who are uninsured.
Under the proposed health insurance changes, regulators said, the uninsured rate in New Mexico would double to 18 percent by 2026. That's close to the rate of people without insurance before the current law took effect.
New Mexico's sole Republican on Capitol Hill, Rep. Steve Pearce, was among the lawmakers meeting with the White House in recent days.
"I have serious concerns that the proposed legislation will not lower costs or give access to more health care for New Mexican families," he said Thursday. "I will keep advocating for a viable solution that brings affordability and accessibility to New Mexicans."
The insurance superintendent's analysis was based mostly on a review by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, which found 24 million people nationwide would lose their health insurance over a decade.
If New Mexico's uninsured rate were to climb back up, Manne said that could have a ripple effect on the state's entire health care system. She said any congressional proposals need to address what she called the real problem — health care costs.